The Illusory Nature of Earthquake Precursors

Bychkov Serguei

According to the definition of seismologists, a precursor of an earthquake is one of the signs of an upcoming seismic event, expressed in a different form or phenomenon that is not typical for a given area. As a result of the systematization of signs of seismic activity over the past ~300 years, a number of typical phenomena have been identified that are considered precursors of earthquakes. They have different mechanisms of occurrence, occur in different geological conditions, at different times of the day and year, and may be different in nature and manifestation. Geophysicists often use earthquake precursors to predict long-term seismic events and do not use them to promptly alert the public about seismic hazards, because they recognize that precursor phenomena are not specific to specifically and only for earthquakes that may occur in the near future, or may never occur. For example, atmospheric phenomena can occur during periods of geomagnetic storms, and widespread animal disturbance can be caused by weather conditions. We believe that when declaring earthquake precursors as signs of an approaching earthquake, some seismologists are mistaken, because earthquake precursors are most often evidence of an already begun and ongoing earthquake. The article is devoted to clarifying the issue of the mechanism of occurrence of earthquake precursors, and how they affect the prediction of the seismic situation in geological regions.
PDF